FOIAengine: News Organizations Investigate Prediction Markets
Several leading news organizations are investigating high-flying prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, based on Freedom of Information Act requests submitted to the Commodity and Futures Trading Commission during February. The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Fortune magazine, CNN, and NOTUS submitted requests to the CFTC seeking documents related to consumer complaints and CFTC leadership communications with the companies
In total, the Kalshi and Polymarket were targeted by 10 separate FOIA requests during February according to FOIAengine, which tracks FOIA requests in as close to real time as their availability allows. Another six requests were submitted in December and January, including requests from The New York Times and Bloomberg.
This is an unusual level of news media FOIA activity targeting individual companies. Journalists often file FOIA requests for government documents in hopes of corroborating newsworthy information they are receiving from other sources.
Nate Jones of The Washington Post requested “all records of any case reported to your agency by Kalshi and/or Polymarket.” Caitlin Ostroff of the Wall Street Journal requested “copies of all formal and informal complaints” filed with the CFTC since January 2025. Benjamin Weiss of Fortune requested “all texts … and emails between Caroline Pham, former commissioner at the CFTC, and Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the prediction market Kalshi, from April 14, 2022, to December 22, 2025.” CNN’s Kurt Devine submitted two requests for “copies of any records related to complaints or reports of alleged violations” received by the CFTC’s Division of Enforcement or the Inspector General’s office. Taylor Giorno of NOTUS sought “emails memoranda, text messages and other third-party communications to and from” senior CFTC leadership relating to prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket.
The two companies have exploded in popularity over the past year. Kalshi and Polymarket online marketplaces enable users to trade contracts tied to real world outcomes in areas as diverse as weather, sports, pop culture, economics, politics, and war. This week Arizona said it filed criminal charges against Kalshi for operating an illegal gambling business. See also David Nayer’s Law Street Media article about 22 federal lawsuits involving Kalshi.
Kalshi, founded in 2018 by MIT classmates Lopes Lara and Tarek Mansour, has grown to $2 billion in transactions per week and recently raised $1 billion from investors at an $11 billion valuation. Lara and Mansour are now billionaires, with Lara becoming the world’s youngest female billionaire. A total of $12 billion was traded on Kalshi and Polymarket in December, up more than 400% from a year earlier.
Polymarket is an international cryptocurrency-based prediction market launched in 2020. It was fined by the CFTC in 2022 for regulatory violations and received a cease and desist order, leading Polymarket to block U.S. customers until December 2025. That month the CFTC approved a plan for the company to resume limited U.S. operations through a registered intermediary. In February 2026 the New York Stock Exchange’s parent company struck an investment deal that put Polymarket’s value at $9 billion and made founder Shayne Coplan a billionaire
The sites have offered a number of popular event contracts in recent months, including the New York City mayoral election ($130 million in Kalshi trades), the Super Bowl ($1 billion), the NCAA’s March Madness ($5.3 billion), and this week’s Oscars ($120 million).
Their exposure is set to increase. Kalshi recently reached a partnership with CNN under which a Kalshi-powered, real-time news ticker will run during segments that feature Kalshi data. This year’s Golden Globes flashed Polymarket odds across the screen before several awards.
What stories could journalists be pursuing by filing those February FOIA requests?
One obvious purpose is to find allegations of legal violations, such as fraud, market manipulation, deceptive schemes, or false statements or misrepresentations to customers. The CFTC’s current leadership has explicitly stated its goal of focusing enforcement resources on fraud and manipulation cases.
Prediction markets also have figured in several recent controversies that could prompt consumer complaints. Most recently, a number of event contracts related to the war in Iran have prompted criticism of what some call “death wagers” about the war. Allegations of insider trading have made headlines after contracts resulted in large winnings from trades on highly-unlikely outcomes, such as details of the Super Bowl halftime show, the timing of the January raid that captured Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, and Israeli military operations.
FOIA requests for communications to and from CFTC leadership and the prediction markets also could be aimed at investigating how close their relationships have been as the administration loosens rules governing the markets. Donald Trump Jr.’s positions as a Polymarket investor and a Kalshi strategic advisor have raised allegations of corruption, as President Trump and the CFTC implement new policies favoring prediction markets at a time when states are moving to ban them.
This occurs against the backdrop of nineteen federal lawsuits that are pending at various stages considering the legality of prediction markets. The CFTC now argues that it has exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, which are regulated as “futures contracts,” and thus they should not be considered gambling. However, 90 percent of activity on Kalshi is sports-related, which has long been considered gambling regulated by the states. To complicate matters further, under federal law “gaming” is a prohibited type of futures contract.
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Next: The latest FOIA requests to the Food and Drug Administration.
Randy E. Miller, co-creator of FOIAengine, is a Washington lawyer, publisher, and former government official. He has developed several online information products and was a partner at Hogan Lovells, where he founded the firm’s Brussels office and represented clients on international regulatory matters. Miller also has served as a White House trade lawyer, Senior Legal Adviser to the U.S. Mission to the World Trade Organization, policy director to Senator Bob Dole, and adjunct professor at Georgetown University. He is a graduate of Yale and Georgetown Law. FOIAengine is a product of PoliScio Analytics (PoliScio.com), a venture specializing in U.S. political and governmental research, co-founded by Miller and Washington journalist John A. Jenkins.
Write to Randy E. Miller at randy@poliscio.com.